When Daniel Bekerman began producing The Apprentice—a 2023 biopic about former U.S. President Donald Trump—he anticipated controversy around the film’s subject, not its filming location. Yet the Toronto-shot movie has now become a prime example of the international productions that would suffer most under Trump’s proposed 100% tariff on foreign-made films.

In a Sunday social media post, Trump claimed he had authorized trade officials to impose the steep tariff, arguing that the U.S. film industry is facing a “very fast death” due to incentives other countries offer to attract productions.

Canada, a major hub for Hollywood projects, could be hit particularly hard. Foreign-funded films and TV shows account for roughly half of the country’s screen industry output, contributing $4.73 billion in 2023 and supporting over 90,000 jobs, according to the Canadian Media Producers Association (CMPA).

Industry Warns of “Chaos” Amid Uncertainty

While many insiders doubt the tariff will materialize, Bekerman, founder of Toronto’s Scythia Films, warns that its implementation could devastate the sector.

“The worst version of this could change the shape of the industry and my livelihood,” he says. However, he notes Trump’s history of walking back tariff threats: “With that level of unpredictability, the only really rational course is to hold steady, solidify partnerships, and keep making good product.”

Noah Segal, co-president of Elevation Pictures (distributor of BlackBerry and PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie), calls Trump’s announcement both “concerning and dumbfounding,” questioning its feasibility.

“It’s already hard enough to make films profitably,” Segal says, citing recent challenges like the pandemic and Hollywood strikes. A tariff could lead to fewer productions and job losses, he warns.

Canadian Content Rules Could Offer Protection

Segal argues that Trump’s threat highlights the importance of Bill C-11, which mandates foreign streamers to invest 5% of their Canadian revenue into local content. The CRTC will soon hold hearings to refine the definition of “Canadian content,” a move that could help shield the industry.

“We have a strong structure to buffer some of these blows,” Segal says.

CMPA President Reynolds Mastin warns the tariff would cause “significant disruption” on both sides of the border, emphasizing the need for a robust domestic industry.

Experts Question Tariff’s Practicality

Media analysts doubt the policy’s enforceability.

“How would theaters adjust pricing? Would consumers pay more for tariffed films?” asks Charlie Keil, a University of Toronto cinema professor. “Theatre owners would bear the cost—and they won’t be happy.”

ProdPro data shows nearly half of U.S. big-budget film/TV spending goes abroad, underscoring the tariff’s potential ripple effects.

Political Pushback: “Don’t Panic”

Canadian leaders have dismissed Trump’s threat as impractical. B.C. Premier David Eby urged calm, noting:

“The president tweets a lot of stuff. The implementation challenges are profound.” He pointed to B.C.’s thriving industry, including HBO’s The Last of Us filming another season there.

Even the White House distanced itself from Trump’s statement, clarifying that “no final decisions” have been made. USA Today reported confusion over whether the tariff would apply to streaming or just theaters, with the Motion Picture Association declining to comment.

Final Takeaway

While Trump’s tariff threat has rattled producers, most believe it’s more bluster than policy. Still, the uncertainty reinforces the need for Canada to bolster its domestic screen sector—before the next political storm hits.

—With files from The Canadian Press